Autonomous Vehicles in Cities: What's to Come in 2026
Urban Autonomy Summit: Jan. 28 in San Francisco
2025 was a watershed year for autonomous vehicles in America’s mega-cities; we saw Waymo finally scale up to a serious transport options in not just LA, SF and Phoenix, but Austin and Atlanta as well. And while it may be the holiday season, those robotaxis don’t seem to be taking a break; as those self-driving car can now travel the Golden State’s freeways, in a move sure to capture the wallets of many an SF-to-San Jose mega-commuter.
Meanwhile, Zoox opened its own robotaxi service to riders in San Francisco, Tesla’s (not-quite) self-driving platform is live in California and Texas, and players like Avride are moving in to Dallas as well. It’s safe to say that like it or not, the AVs are here.
Major Policy Questions for 2026
But beyond the eye-catching headlines… there are still some major unanswered questions, starting with the safety and systems architecture fronts. Just this past week, Waymo’s had to issue a software update to fix an issue with some cars illegally passing stopped school buses. While it’s great to see them respond proactively, others like Tesla have taken a far more cavalier approach. Not only is the NHTSA investigating reports of the Elon Musk-helmed company’s cars running red lights, the OEM just rolled out an update to its driver assistance software that allows for texting while driving — something that is very much illegal in every state except for Montana (yee-haw!)
Then there’s the question of congestion, and the second order effects on public transit usage. While some players like May Mobility and Via are positioning AVs as a public transit solution, other robotaxi rides might displace trips that would have otherwise taken place on a bus or train. As a personal anecdote, just the other night I took a Waymo from Downtown LA to my home. While Uber was quoting me $28 — which would have been enough to nudge me onto the Metro — the Waymo was just $14, and right around the corner. Waymo’s fixed fleet economics (as opposed to having a flexible pool of workers) is likely to mean cheap rides at off-peak times, paired with pricier journeys at rush hour.
Meanwhile, despite the promises of optimized routing, robotaxis are still deadheading — traveling many miles without any passengers on board — and thus adding to urban congestion, nearly half the time they’re on the road. The rate has come down in recent months, but it’s actually higher than what human drivers tend to average. Paradoxically, human deadheading has actually been getting worse in SF and LA, perhaps as the addition of AVs pushes up overall supply in the market.
Of course, all of these are very much solvable problems. But they won’t be solved by technology alone, nor can they be fixed with pure policy and rule-making. I strongly believe a collaboration between the two is necessary, especially as autonomous vehicles push deeper into America’s smaller metro areas — we’re about to see Waymos in Baltimore, self-driving Lyfts in Nashville, Serve Robotics in Ft. Lauderdale, autonomous Ubers in Arlington — most of which will lack the regulatory capacity, clout and interest of first-mover cities.
Join Us to Shape that Future — January 28th in San Francisco
With 2026 shaping up to be such a pivotal year, we felt it was only right to convene the Urban Autonomy Summit, presented by Nexar, on January 28th in San Francisco. I was awed by the high caliber turnout we had for the first edition of this event in NYC, so it felt only right to bring it to the heart of AV territory for a half-day of in-depth panels, news-making talks and powerful networking. Our past events have featured leaders from Waymo, Zoox, Nuro, NYCDOT, Morgan Stanley, Maniv Ventures, DoorDash, USDOT, Zipcar, Mapbox, Bloomberg, Uber, Via, Serve, CPUC and many more — expect this invite-only gathering to be a who’s who of AV leaders.
HOT INDUSTRY NEWS & GOSSIP
Wow… somehow 2025 is already just about done. I’ll be taking a break from writing (and podcasting) for the next few weeks. In case you missed any of them, here are a few of my favorite pieces from the past year:
A few good links: Rivian plans new autonomy push. Amazon DSPs organize in secret to demand better pay rates. USPS consolidation threatens rural healthcare access. NEVI EV charger funding restored. Toronto tram trouble: new zillion dollar Line 6 is slower than the bus it replaces; mayor promises improvements, but complicated management structure will impede progress. Seattle opens light rail extension, but infill housing is lacking. How to build LRT well. On the rise and fall of CAKE e-motos. Starship partners with Foodora in Czechia. DHL launches autonomous delivery vehicles in Singapore. Ola exits food delivery biz. Grubhub’s top foods of 2025. Fiat Topolino states-bound. CAHSR releases DEIR for LA-OC network. NYPD is so bad at parking enforcement that it took them one week to notice a decayed corpse left in an illegal parked car one block from a police station. LAPD arrests crosswalk painting activist. Instacart in hot water over algorithmic pricing; company files suit against NYC wage laws, integrates into ChatGPT. Uber Direct plugs into Shopify. Walmart expands rapid delivery network. Payment delinquencies rise. A sordid history of Texas cities trying to exit DART. NYC congestion pricing cut air pollution by 22%. NJ politics roiled by investigation into police work stoppage on traffic safety after investigation into discrimination. Highland Electric raises $150M. Qargo raises €28M. RIP to Frank Gehry — his earlier works never really made sense outside of SoCal, as they were a kaleidoscopic refraction of the region’s carefree ideals, expressed through a reimagination of workman materials like chainlink and corrugated metal. And for those of you that really love delivery, check out Modern Delivery’s look back at 2025.
Don’t forget to score your Curbivore tickets and to apply to attend the Urban Autonomy Summit!
- Jonah Bliss & The Curbivore Crew
Great piece on deadheading dynamics! The 50% metric is revealing but what really matters is optimizing for peak vs off-peak demand patterns. Waymo's fixed capacity advantage during low-demand windows is clever pricing stragegy, but that same rigidity is gonna create supply mismatches when demand spikes unexpectedly.