Curb Cuts: OBBBA's Impact to Mobility, Logistics & Cities

Cameras tackle traffic enforcement, GM EV sales surge

It’s official, One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is now the law of the land. While the societal consequences will be enormous, I thought it prudent to take a look at the changes the bill introduces to curb-related topics like mobility, logistics and urban housing.

Mobility, Transportation, Automotive & Infrastructure

• The act phases out EV tax credits by September, with EV charging credits axed by June 2026. Conversely, car buyers can now deduct up to $10,000 per year in auto loan interest for cars assembled in the U.S., until 2028.

  • This is already impacting automakers of all scales: Slate is no longer promising its new electric mini-truck will come in “under $20k,” while Nissan is scaling back EV production in Mississippi.

• The bill also nixes pending civil penalties for OEMs that fail to meet CAFE standards, giving automakers all the more reason to keep pumping out gas guzzlers.

• OBBBA cancels grants for FAA alternative fuel research, Neighborhood Access and Equity grants, and other sustainability research initiatives.

• The act includes some permit streamlining, including an optional expedited NEPA review process, whereby project sponsors can pay 125% of review costs to ensure an EIS must be completed in one year.

  • This one could be a double-edged sword, speeding up construction of everything from new highways to public transit projects.

• A number of non-curby transport-related projects get some big bucks as well, including FAA ATC updates, new Coast Guard vehicles, and $10 billion for NASA.

Delivery & Logistics

• The rescission of funding for clean heavy-duty vehicles and clean port initiatives is bad news from both air quality and port mechanization standpoints.

• A crackdown on duty-free imports, including the end of de minimis exemptions and higher penalties for violations, is likely to take a bite out of package delivery volumes.

• Big cuts to SNAP (food stamps) not only takes food out of hungry mouths, but will ding the bottom lines of big grocery retailers like Walmart and Kroger.

  • Most of the 3PDs have made a big push into delivering SNAP-subsidized groceries, so expect a hit to volume across Uber Eats, DoorDash and Instacart.

• The elimination of tax on tips will likely make gig work more attractive, drawing more couriers (and some TNC drivers) onto the roads.

  • Tips make up a whopping 53.4% of restaurant delivery worker pay — compared to just 10.4% for rideshare workers — so we could see a flood of new couriers looking to arbitrage this difference.

Housing Construction & Cities

• The OBBBA looks to boost low-income housing supply by raising every state’s LIHTC allocation cap by 12%, lowering the private-activity bond financing requirements from 50% to 25%, while maintaining the tax exempt status of municipal bonds.

• Conversely, the act rescinds all remaining HUD Green and Resilient Retrofit Program and a number of other sustainability improvement programs.

• A new round of designated opportunity zones, now with changed income thresholds, might trigger more housing growth in poorer neighborhoods or may again just end up gerrymandered to be a tax break with little bearing on where housing gets produced.

• An ax to a number of programs looking to lower the embodied carbon of construction materials means American building techniques will stay less sustainable than those of our global peers.

Of course there are even more bonkers changes, like the “Golden Dome” missile defense shield, “Trump Accounts” for newborns, and a dramatic expansion of ICE and the Border Patrol. Additional policy changes, outside the scope of OBBBA, like FMCSA rule changes and the upcoming FY 2026 budget, will further deteriorate the nation’s cities, mobility and logistics systems.

---

HOT INDUSTRY NEWS & GOSSIP

Sprawl is over, whether you like it or not: No the culprit wasn’t a sudden surge of good planning or higher gas prices, it seems like American cities have simply run out of developable land. A new Ed Glaeser and Joseph Gyourko paper finds that high home prices are no longer just a coastal elite problem, with housing growth down and purchase prices way up in even the least tony of towns. While the economists say higher labor costs, reduced labor forces and larger home sizes are partial culprits, “The key driver appears to be that the intensity of housing production has dropped substantially over time, especially in many expanding Sunbelt markets.” (I would personally also throw in some of Kevin Erdmann’s thesis that post-GFC reforms to housing finance is an under-appreciated weight on the market.)

New York nooz: So much for safe streets… a judge okayed Mayor Adams plan to rip up a protected bike lane on busy Bedford Avenue, without the need for advanced notification. Meanwhile, while mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani (now the clear frontrunner on Polymarket) may be pilloried for his proposal to make NYC’s buses free, transit advocates celebrate many of his other initiatives and say he was a capable advocate for public transportation as a state legislator. What one mayor taketh, the next mayor giveth?

From one finance capital to another… wheeled progress in Ol’ Blighty: It’s not just the continent that’s taking back road space for pedestrians and bicyclists, now London is making moves as well. Motor vehicle usage in the City of London (the 1.12 sq mi CBD at the heart of the larger region) has plummeted to the point that bikes are soon to overtake them in mode share, thanks to oodles of new bike lanes and a big electrification effort by micromobility players Lime and Forest.

Smile! The data bears out this sad truth: law enforcement officers have given up on enforcing traffic rules. Traffic stops are down 50% over four years in Los Angeles, 63% in six years in Pittsburgh, 71% in Oakland over seven years and a whopping 83% in Seattle in just four years. Unsurprisingly, traffic-related accidents and fatalities have surged over that same time frame. Now, more and more municipalities are turning to automated enforcement technologies, which have the added upside of fewer biases and a far reduced risk of escalating into violence.

Who remembers EV1? Tesla sales may be nosediving, but other automakers are happily picking up new EV buyers: General Motors’ electric vehicle sales doubled in Q2 to 46,280 vehicles. While the OEM now offers 11 electrified models, the star of its lineup seems to be the Chevy Equinox EV, a compact crossover SUV.

These press shots may feature Chinese license plates, but they were clearly taken on Downtown Los Angeles’ Lower Grand Ave.

Speaking of Tesla problems… Elon Musk tweeted that Grok, Twitter and xAI’s LLM chatbot, is going to be integrated into Tesla vehicles next week. Am I the only one not looking forward to my turn-by-turn navigation instructions getting interrupted by the AI trying to coax me into reading the The Protocols of the Elders of Zion?

Startups starting up: Munich-based Filics raised €13.5M ($15.8M) for its warehouse robotics platform. Saudi’s PetroApp closed on $50M for fuel payment management, eyes IPO. Berlin’s Cariqa raised €4M ($4.7M) to unify EV charging payments. LGND scored $9M for queryable satellite imagery (reminds me of GeoLava.)

A distinctly American problem: With many transit agencies struggling with strained finances due to reduced ridership, it’s worth contemplating why operators in other countries have fared much better. Transit ridership is up in France, from the largest cities to its sprawling countryside. Part of the drop in America is seemingly due to the fact that 24 of the 25 largest cities have reduced transit service, which tends to set off a vicious cycle leading to ever less ridership, and even further service cuts…

Not all progress is visible: A federal court just mandated that the City of Chicago must install accessible pedestrian signals for blind and vision-impaired pedestrians, covering 71% of all signalized intersections in the next decade. *The walk sign is on to cross Michigan Avenue. The walk sign is on to cross Michigan Avenue.*

A few good links: Diligent Robotics nabs ex-Cruise execs. Watch out wallets and gourmands: Noma heads to Los Angeles. How Denver’s city gov’t set out to improve the pace of housing construction. Minneapolis to shutter Northstar commuter rail line. Why Slauson & Co backed Slate Auto. NY State bill that perpetually mandates two person train operations would keep NYC transit operations stuck in the past.

Until next week!

- Jonah Bliss & The Curbivore Crew