The standard labor story around robotaxis is pretty straightforward: each autonomous trip is one a human driver couldn’t take. New data from our partners at Gridwise Analytics complicates that assumption: it could be the platforms, not the drivers, that are getting hit first.
Between Q2 2024 and Q2 2026, human drivers grossed more per trip and per hour in all five AV markets studied. The median price of a human-driven trip rose in four of them and stayed flat in San Francisco. Yet the median platform fee rate fell in every market, even as it increased nationwide.
That does not mean drivers are inherently safe from automation. Trips per hour generally declined, and drivers in Austin and LA recorded substantially fewer work hours and reduced gross pay. But the most uniform pressure in this snapshot is not on the rate drivers receive, it’s on the share of the fare retained by the likes of Uber and Lyft.
Platform fees show the clearest pressure
To keep things simple, when you book a trip on a ridehailing app: some of your fare goes to the driver and some of it goes to the app and its third party partners; let’s call that non-driver portion the “platform fee.” Across Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Francisco, the median platform fee fell 13.8%, from $2.61 to $2.25. Nationwide, in non-AV markets, platform fees rose 19.2%, from $2.97 to $3.54. A 36-cent gap in 2024 became a $1.29 gap two years later.
SF is the sharpest example. Its median customer price held at $16.95, while the median platform fee fell from $3.10 to $1.64 and the fee rate dropped from 19% to 10.2%. Over the same period, hourly gross pay for human drivers rose 3.3% and quarterly gross pay rose 16.1%.
Consumers have not seen broad savings, while drivers are seeing utilization pressure
Whatever competitive pressure AVs are creating, it has not yet produced broad fare relief for passengers. Median prices bounced around noisily quarter-to-quarter, but ended up 8.8% higher in the blended AV markets. In cities without autonomous competition, prices rose a smidge more on average: 11.7%.
Meanwhile, drivers are actually seeing their gross pay per trip rise faster in markets with autonomous competition: Atlanta saw gross pay jump 20.7%, while drivers in non-AV markets only saw a 7.8% improvement to pay.
But while trip pay is staying strong, utilization seems to be on the decline. Across the five AV markets, median trips per work hour fell 3.1%, compared with 1.2% elsewhere.
That split raises the possibility of a subtler labor impact: pressure may first appear in how much drivers work, rather than what they receive per trip or per hour. The data can’t yet tell us whether people chose to drive less, struggled to find work, switched apps or dropped out of the industry.
When we last examined this question in September, Gridwise’s one-year snapshot also pointed toward segmentation rather than mass displacement. Los Angeles looked especially weak, but San Francisco combined fewer trips per hour with higher quarterly pay, Atlanta and Austin paired lower trip frequency with higher pay rates, and Phoenix barely moved. The new two-year window strengthens that basic conclusion while shifting some of the apparent pressure from pay rates to hours worked, and from driver pay toward platform fees.
“Gross” pay remains an important caveat. These figures exclude tips, maintenance, taxes and depreciation, as well as hot-button costs like insurance and gas.
Human work is shifting toward differentiated trips
If robots are best at repeatable trips inside defined service areas, human drivers’ advantages lie on the edges: longer rides, luggage-heavy airport runs, surge periods, luxury travel, etc.
In AV markets, premium rides gained share by leaps and bounds, outpacing smaller increases nationwide. SF’s share nearly doubled, from 10.6% to 19.7%, while Atlanta’s rose from 12.3% to 20.3%. Median trip distance also increased materially in Atlanta and Austin.
Lyft’s own guidance from Nashville makes the emerging division of labor unusually explicit. It points drivers toward busy-area maps and incentive zones, while recommending luggage help, hospitality and local knowledge. Human drivers, Lyft notes, will continue receiving requests “throughout and around” the AV service area. The implication is that people supply the geographic reach, flexibility and service that a fixed robot fleet cannot.
AV operators can route around the platforms
For Uber and Lyft, replacing a driver with a robot is far more attractive if the robot still comes through their marketplace. Waymo increasingly wants a direct channel alongside those platforms.
The much-watched Uber–Waymo breakup now looks headed towards a full-scale divorce. Their Phoenix pilot ended in May, with just over a dozen vehicles folded into Waymo’s own service. Just this week, Waymo confirmed that its exclusivity with Uber in Atlanta and Austin will end in Jan. 2028, with Waymo looking to capture the rider directly. “It’s important for us to have that relationship with the rider,” said co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana.
The platforms are building their counteroffensive
Of course, the big ridehailing platforms aren’t going to give up their customers without putting up a fight. Both Lyft and Uber are assembling portfolios that they think will keep them indispensable in an AV-ified future.
Uber’s non-Waymo launch roster already spans several continents. Public rides are available with WeRide in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Riyadh, Avride in Dallas, Motional in Las Vegas, Pony.ai and Verne in Zagreb, Baidu in Dubai and Wayve in London. Just yesterday, Uber shared that it expects 700 fully driverless vehicles on its platform by year-end and more than 2,000 in 2027, thanks to a pipeline that includes Lucid, Nuro, MOIA and more.
Uber is also putting capital behind its portfolio. Its commitments include up to $1.25 billion for Rivian, roughly $250 million for Waabi, $500 million in Lucid, a reported commitment approaching $500 million to Nuro, another $100 million in WeRide, and participation in an Avride package worth up to $375 million, alongside an undisclosed investment in Verne.
Lyft’s non-Waymo portfolio is smaller, but follows the same supplier-neutral logic. May Mobility’s supervised vehicles are live in Atlanta; Baidu’s Apollo Go is testing in London through Freenow, and the company has more speculative tie-ups with the likes of Holon and Tensor. Its Flexdrive business positions it as an AV fleet operator and maintainer as well.
But Lyft’s most interesting hedge runs in the complete opposite direction. It spent roughly $115 million to acquire TBR Global Chauffeuring, then announced that the business will become Alcove in early 2027: a global chauffeur network for corporate travel, VIPs, events, extended bookings and other trips where high-touch human service is core to the product.
Robotaxis may still reduce human driving over time. But the immediate contest is broader than robot versus chauffeur: it’s a fight over who owns the customer, operates the fleet and captures the margin as rides get divided between machines and people.
LA Happy Hour — Join Us Nov 19th
Join your friends from Curbivore and Michigan EDC’s Office of Future Mobility and Electrification for a lively evening of light bites, great drinks and engaging conversation with the public and private sector leaders moving mobility forward. Join us 11/19 in the DTLA Arts District.
HOT INDUSTRY NEWS & GOSSIP
Politics ain’t beanbag: While this week’s election will hopefully usher in a new era in so many ways, let’s at least start with a quick recap of what it means for transportation. Colorado voters said yes to regional rail; Seattle approved a transit sales tax; the Bay Area opened its wallet to save BART, CalTrain and Muni; and more. With Dems back in power, we’re likely to see efforts to save the Highway Trust Fund, restore EV subsidies and roll back recent cuts in the BUILD Act. On the wonkier side, NYC voters said yes to more bike lanes and streamlined permits for outdoor dining, while Floridians approval of Amendment 3 means they’ll have decades of reduced governmental services to look forward to. And of course, congrats to friends of the curb in new, higher places: LA Mayor-elect Nithya Raman and Congressman-elect Scott Wiener.
Now, back to the money… it’s Q3 earnings time! Uber saw gross bookings grow 20% YoY to $59.8 billion, on the back of declining mobility and surging delivery revenue. Growth was up by double digits at soon-to-combine Instacart and DoorDash as well, while Lyft saw gross bookings up 17% to $5.6B and revenue hit $1.8B. Lime’s TTM beat $1B for the first time. Mobileye revenue dipped 2% and TaskUs raised its full-year guidance to around $1.25 billion.
AutoMobility LA, the industry’s premier gathering takes place on November 19, 2026, from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m., where the brightest minds in mobility come together for a one-day program of news, innovation, and opportunity. As the official media and industry day of the Los Angeles Auto Show, it’s where conversations spark partnerships and the future of mobility moves from insight to impact.
With over 20 media moments, including automaker and partner announcements, speaker sessions, industry awards, and hosted networking happy hours, register today!
November 19, 2026 | 7:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. | LA Convention Center
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Speaking of AVs… Waymo added 250 square miles of new service area, expanding its coverage around LA, SF, Orlando, Nashville and San Diego. The company is also partnering with Toyota to build new robotaxis on top of the latter’s bZ4X vehicle, while San Diegans grumble about losing charging spots to thirsty robots. Bolt and Stellantis are working with Greater Paris to bring AVs to the city’s suburbs. Meanwhile, Humble Robotics raised $51M for autonomous trucking and May Mobility is trying its hand at dual-use.
Going green costs greenbacks: Interesting new Census data charts EV penetration across the country. Renters are less than half as likely as homeowners to have an electric vehicle. But is that because the average homeowner is richer, or because even a wealthy renter is likely to be in an apartment building, where charging may be impossible if the landlord hasn’t done a ton of electric work in the garage? America’s EV-iest county is Santa Clara, CA, while the state with the least penetration is North Dakota: talk about range anxiety!
Curbivore is proud to partner with CoMotion LA ‘26, bringing 1,200+ mobility leaders and 150+ speakers to DTLA on November 18-19.
Los Angeles is entering its most consequential moment in decades.
How can the city use the upcoming mega-events as a launchpad for better mobility for its residents long after the games? What are the implications for waves of robotaxis and delivery bots when they hit our streets? How do we keep funding public transport, and can procurement keep pace with the technology cities are being asked to buy? Where are investors placing their next bet? All this and much more.
Register here and use code Curbivore-20 for 20% off. Mobility leader passes include full VIP access to CoMotion NXT on November 17 in Long Beach.
Modern Delivery, quick hits: Zipline raises $1.5 billion, while expanding Walmart partnership to 300 new stores. Wonder files for IPO. Amazon Prime swaps bundled food delivery from Grubhub to Uber Eats. DoorDash and Lyft offer combined subscription. Amazon pulls planned drone service from Massachusetts.
A few good links: Where have all the car commercials gone? Perhaps relatedly, young people are less and less likely to have a driver’s license. Who gets left bhind when public transit is asked to solve non-transportation problems? Autopia goes all-electric. Toronto removes bike lanes. Northwood Space raises $375M. Static Media buys CarScoops. Walmart to sell Base Power home batteries. The IPO backlog is a myth. Level boarding needn’t be complicated. Russia unveils hydrogen train. Australia builds world’s largest electric ferry. TEXRail breaks ground on Ft. Worth Medical District extension (now how about improving frequency?) Arrive opens London office. Under two percent of venture capital went to red states.
See you next week!
- Jonah Bliss & The Curbivore Crew